TALLINN — The latest polls show a reversal for the ruling Reform Party, as their support has declined slightly while the Center Party’s has increased enough to become the most popular in Estonia’s fractured party politics.

The survey was commissioned by the Postimees newspaper and conducted by the polling company Turu-uuringute AS and of the country’s four largest parties only [private_supervisor]Center pulled ahead. The center-right Reform Party decreased by 1 percent to 18 percent support since February, and its coalition partner Union of Res Publica and Pro Patria is also down 1 percent. In the opposition, support of Social Democrats fell by 2 percent, while support for the populist Center Party increased by 2 percent to 20 percent total.

The survey questioned 1,001 people from age 15 to 74 all over Estonia in from April 1 to 14, and 796 of the participants have the right to vote.

While the results looks better for Center, its hardly time to uncork the champagne bottles as the increase falls within the poll’s margin of error, so actually the numbers show a continuation of the status quo instead of a shift to the left in the Estonian electorate.

Turundus-uuringute CEO Tõnis Stamberg said that the Center Party’s tiny upswing in the results was likely due to campaigning for the March 2011 parliamentary election as well as the merge of Social Democrats and the People’s Union. Yet the difference is too small to say for certain.

“We can’t say that the Center Party has passed the Reform Party,” Stamberg told Baltic Reports, “The difference between those parties is only 2 percent, but in the sample of 1,000 people the difference should be at least 3 percent.”

Estonian political analyst Toomas Alatalu echoed this assessment, asserting that the switch in support is probably affected by the collapse of the People’s Union and the power-struggle among the Greens, which has benefited the Center Party.

“In addition, many intellectuals and businessmen have temporarily backed off from the Reform Party due to the upcoming political play ‘Ühtne Eesti’ that is now advocating not supporting Reform,” Alatalu told Baltic Reports.

Although the content of the “Ühtne Eesti” play remain a mystery for the general public, set to be performed on May 7 in Tallinn, it is already rattling the country’s political scene. The play is being produced by an Estonian experimental theater company NO99 with the intent to make people experience a real political party meeting.

Alatalu said that if Reform’s support drops further it may rouse the party into campaigning mode, as it will have shown that its current policy of lauding the predicted 2011 eurozone entry may not be enough to sustain public support in during the severe economic downturn.

Tõnis Saarts, a Tallinn University political scientist said that those results are just a fluctuation, not a significant change.

“The next poll results should indicate a trend, to speak about a significant change,” Saarts told Baltic Reports.

Regardless of the support horse-race, the poll shows that the battle for who will control the next government remains clearly between Center and Reform. [/private_supervisor] [private_subscription 1 month]Center pulled ahead. The center-right Reform Party decreased by 1 percent to 18 percent support since February, and its coalition partner Union of Res Publica and Pro Patria is also down 1 percent. In the opposition, support of Social Democrats fell by 2 percent, while support for the populist Center Party increased by 2 percent to 20 percent total.

The survey questioned 1,001 people from age 15 to 74 all over Estonia in from April 1 to 14, and 796 of the participants have the right to vote.

While the results looks better for Center, its hardly time to uncork the champagne bottles as the increase falls within the poll’s margin of error, so actually the numbers show a continuation of the status quo instead of a shift to the left in the Estonian electorate.

Turundus-uuringute CEO Tõnis Stamberg said that the Center Party’s tiny upswing in the results was likely due to campaigning for the March 2011 parliamentary election as well as the merge of Social Democrats and the People’s Union. Yet the difference is too small to say for certain.

“We can’t say that the Center Party has passed the Reform Party,” Stamberg told Baltic Reports, “The difference between those parties is only 2 percent, but in the sample of 1,000 people the difference should be at least 3 percent.”

Estonian political analyst Toomas Alatalu echoed this assessment, asserting that the switch in support is probably affected by the collapse of the People’s Union and the power-struggle among the Greens, which has benefited the Center Party.

“In addition, many intellectuals and businessmen have temporarily backed off from the Reform Party due to the upcoming political play ‘Ühtne Eesti’ that is now advocating not supporting Reform,” Alatalu told Baltic Reports.

Although the content of the “Ühtne Eesti” play remain a mystery for the general public, set to be performed on May 7 in Tallinn, it is already rattling the country’s political scene. The play is being produced by an Estonian experimental theater company NO99 with the intent to make people experience a real political party meeting.

Alatalu said that if Reform’s support drops further it may rouse the party into campaigning mode, as it will have shown that its current policy of lauding the predicted 2011 eurozone entry may not be enough to sustain public support in during the severe economic downturn.

Tõnis Saarts, a Tallinn University political scientist said that those results are just a fluctuation, not a significant change.

“The next poll results should indicate a trend, to speak about a significant change,” Saarts told Baltic Reports.

Regardless of the support horse-race, the poll shows that the battle for who will control the next government remains clearly between Center and Reform. [/private_subscription 1 month] [private_subscription 4 months]Center pulled ahead. The center-right Reform Party decreased by 1 percent to 18 percent support since February, and its coalition partner Union of Res Publica and Pro Patria is also down 1 percent. In the opposition, support of Social Democrats fell by 2 percent, while support for the populist Center Party increased by 2 percent to 20 percent total.

The survey questioned 1,001 people from age 15 to 74 all over Estonia in from April 1 to 14, and 796 of the participants have the right to vote.

While the results looks better for Center, its hardly time to uncork the champagne bottles as the increase falls within the poll’s margin of error, so actually the numbers show a continuation of the status quo instead of a shift to the left in the Estonian electorate.

Turundus-uuringute CEO Tõnis Stamberg said that the Center Party’s tiny upswing in the results was likely due to campaigning for the March 2011 parliamentary election as well as the merge of Social Democrats and the People’s Union. Yet the difference is too small to say for certain.

“We can’t say that the Center Party has passed the Reform Party,” Stamberg told Baltic Reports, “The difference between those parties is only 2 percent, but in the sample of 1,000 people the difference should be at least 3 percent.”

Estonian political analyst Toomas Alatalu echoed this assessment, asserting that the switch in support is probably affected by the collapse of the People’s Union and the power-struggle among the Greens, which has benefited the Center Party.

“In addition, many intellectuals and businessmen have temporarily backed off from the Reform Party due to the upcoming political play ‘Ühtne Eesti’ that is now advocating not supporting Reform,” Alatalu told Baltic Reports.

Although the content of the “Ühtne Eesti” play remain a mystery for the general public, set to be performed on May 7 in Tallinn, it is already rattling the country’s political scene. The play is being produced by an Estonian experimental theater company NO99 with the intent to make people experience a real political party meeting.

Alatalu said that if Reform’s support drops further it may rouse the party into campaigning mode, as it will have shown that its current policy of lauding the predicted 2011 eurozone entry may not be enough to sustain public support in during the severe economic downturn.

Tõnis Saarts, a Tallinn University political scientist said that those results are just a fluctuation, not a significant change.

“The next poll results should indicate a trend, to speak about a significant change,” Saarts told Baltic Reports.

Regardless of the support horse-race, the poll shows that the battle for who will control the next government remains clearly between Center and Reform. [/private_subscription 4 months] [private_subscription 1 year]Center pulled ahead. The center-right Reform Party decreased by 1 percent to 18 percent support since February, and its coalition partner Union of Res Publica and Pro Patria is also down 1 percent. In the opposition, support of Social Democrats fell by 2 percent, while support for the populist Center Party increased by 2 percent to 20 percent total.

The survey questioned 1,001 people from age 15 to 74 all over Estonia in from April 1 to 14, and 796 of the participants have the right to vote.

While the results looks better for Center, its hardly time to uncork the champagne bottles as the increase falls within the poll’s margin of error, so actually the numbers show a continuation of the status quo instead of a shift to the left in the Estonian electorate.

Turundus-uuringute CEO Tõnis Stamberg said that the Center Party’s tiny upswing in the results was likely due to campaigning for the March 2011 parliamentary election as well as the merge of Social Democrats and the People’s Union. Yet the difference is too small to say for certain.

“We can’t say that the Center Party has passed the Reform Party,” Stamberg told Baltic Reports, “The difference between those parties is only 2 percent, but in the sample of 1,000 people the difference should be at least 3 percent.”

Estonian political analyst Toomas Alatalu echoed this assessment, asserting that the switch in support is probably affected by the collapse of the People’s Union and the power-struggle among the Greens, which has benefited the Center Party.

“In addition, many intellectuals and businessmen have temporarily backed off from the Reform Party due to the upcoming political play ‘Ühtne Eesti’ that is now advocating not supporting Reform,” Alatalu told Baltic Reports.

Although the content of the “Ühtne Eesti” play remain a mystery for the general public, set to be performed on May 7 in Tallinn, it is already rattling the country’s political scene. The play is being produced by an Estonian experimental theater company NO99 with the intent to make people experience a real political party meeting.

Alatalu said that if Reform’s support drops further it may rouse the party into campaigning mode, as it will have shown that its current policy of lauding the predicted 2011 eurozone entry may not be enough to sustain public support in during the severe economic downturn.

Tõnis Saarts, a Tallinn University political scientist said that those results are just a fluctuation, not a significant change.

“The next poll results should indicate a trend, to speak about a significant change,” Saarts told Baltic Reports.

Regardless of the support horse-race, the poll shows that the battle for who will control the next government remains clearly between Center and Reform. [/private_subscription 1 year]

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