TALLINN — Estonian retailers are reporting that sales are up, signaling a return in domestic demand, but economic analysts say it may be just a spurt driven by fears of a price increases as euro adoption looms.
The car sales company Amserv Auto, the Prisma supermarket chain, and the Sandman Grupp electronic store chain announced their sales were up by [private_supervisor]10-15 percent in last few months. Meanwhile the Viru Shopping Center said its long-running sales decrease has finally ebbed.
Martin Pedai, director of Sandman Grupp told business newspaper Äripäev that he is certain that consumers are more inclined to spend again, rather than saving, saying that his chain had seen a rise in television sales during the Olympic games and in anticipation of the July 1 digital switchover.
Prisma Peremarket CEO Janne Lihavainen was also quoted in the Estonian press as being optimistic about the rest of the year’s retail outlook.
However, many economists are more guarded in their outlook.
Annika Paabut, a Swedbank macro-analyst said that consumer confidence is returning as the economic decline ebbs after last year’s plunge downward from the “Baltic Tiger” boom. Yet, Paabut said that it’s too soon to tell if Estonian households are fully out of their crisis mode.
“We believe that household consumption will be less than last year, and that some modest growth will be seen next year,” Paabut told Baltic Reports.
Paabut said that adopting euro may shake up the private consuming a little due the threatening price hike, but this will not sustain increased consumer spending.
Karel Lember, an economic analyst at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, said spurt looks bigger than it is given the depth of the crisis last year, but said increased stabilization and modest recovery will bolster spending
“If the increase of unemployment halts, which has somewhat happened, and there will be no more wage cuts, then people will get more courage to increase their consumption,” Lember told Baltic Reports.
Tõnu Palm, head economist at Nordea Bank’s Estonia subsidiary told Baltic Reports that the improvement in sales is still rather a seasonal change, though, given that the first quarter is typically the worst for retail. [/private_supervisor] [private_subscription 1 month]10-15 percent in last few months. Meanwhile the Viru Shopping Center said its long-running sales decrease has finally ebbed.
Martin Pedai, director of Sandman Grupp told business newspaper Äripäev that he is certain that consumers are more inclined to spend again, rather than saving, saying that his chain had seen a rise in television sales during the Olympic games and in anticipation of the July 1 digital switchover.
Prisma Peremarket CEO Janne Lihavainen was also quoted in the Estonian press as being optimistic about the rest of the year’s retail outlook.
However, many economists are more guarded in their outlook.
Annika Paabut, a Swedbank macro-analyst said that consumer confidence is returning as the economic decline ebbs after last year’s plunge downward from the “Baltic Tiger” boom. Yet, Paabut said that it’s too soon to tell if Estonian households are fully out of their crisis mode.
“We believe that household consumption will be less than last year, and that some modest growth will be seen next year,” Paabut told Baltic Reports.
Paabut said that adopting euro may shake up the private consuming a little due the threatening price hike, but this will not sustain increased consumer spending.
Karel Lember, an economic analyst at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, said spurt looks bigger than it is given the depth of the crisis last year, but said increased stabilization and modest recovery will bolster spending
“If the increase of unemployment halts, which has somewhat happened, and there will be no more wage cuts, then people will get more courage to increase their consumption,” Lember told Baltic Reports.
Tõnu Palm, head economist at Nordea Bank’s Estonia subsidiary told Baltic Reports that the improvement in sales is still rather a seasonal change, though, given that the first quarter is typically the worst for retail. [/private_subscription 1 month] [private_subscription 4 months]10-15 percent in last few months. Meanwhile the Viru Shopping Center said its long-running sales decrease has finally ebbed.
Martin Pedai, director of Sandman Grupp told business newspaper Äripäev that he is certain that consumers are more inclined to spend again, rather than saving, saying that his chain had seen a rise in television sales during the Olympic games and in anticipation of the July 1 digital switchover.
Prisma Peremarket CEO Janne Lihavainen was also quoted in the Estonian press as being optimistic about the rest of the year’s retail outlook.
However, many economists are more guarded in their outlook.
Annika Paabut, a Swedbank macro-analyst said that consumer confidence is returning as the economic decline ebbs after last year’s plunge downward from the “Baltic Tiger” boom. Yet, Paabut said that it’s too soon to tell if Estonian households are fully out of their crisis mode.
“We believe that household consumption will be less than last year, and that some modest growth will be seen next year,” Paabut told Baltic Reports.
Paabut said that adopting euro may shake up the private consuming a little due the threatening price hike, but this will not sustain increased consumer spending.
Karel Lember, an economic analyst at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, said spurt looks bigger than it is given the depth of the crisis last year, but said increased stabilization and modest recovery will bolster spending
“If the increase of unemployment halts, which has somewhat happened, and there will be no more wage cuts, then people will get more courage to increase their consumption,” Lember told Baltic Reports.
Tõnu Palm, head economist at Nordea Bank’s Estonia subsidiary told Baltic Reports that the improvement in sales is still rather a seasonal change, though, given that the first quarter is typically the worst for retail. [/private_subscription 4 months] [private_subscription 1 year]10-15 percent in last few months. Meanwhile the Viru Shopping Center said its long-running sales decrease has finally ebbed.
Martin Pedai, director of Sandman Grupp told business newspaper Äripäev that he is certain that consumers are more inclined to spend again, rather than saving, saying that his chain had seen a rise in television sales during the Olympic games and in anticipation of the July 1 digital switchover.
Prisma Peremarket CEO Janne Lihavainen was also quoted in the Estonian press as being optimistic about the rest of the year’s retail outlook.
However, many economists are more guarded in their outlook.
Annika Paabut, a Swedbank macro-analyst said that consumer confidence is returning as the economic decline ebbs after last year’s plunge downward from the “Baltic Tiger” boom. Yet, Paabut said that it’s too soon to tell if Estonian households are fully out of their crisis mode.
“We believe that household consumption will be less than last year, and that some modest growth will be seen next year,” Paabut told Baltic Reports.
Paabut said that adopting euro may shake up the private consuming a little due the threatening price hike, but this will not sustain increased consumer spending.
Karel Lember, an economic analyst at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, said spurt looks bigger than it is given the depth of the crisis last year, but said increased stabilization and modest recovery will bolster spending
“If the increase of unemployment halts, which has somewhat happened, and there will be no more wage cuts, then people will get more courage to increase their consumption,” Lember told Baltic Reports.
Tõnu Palm, head economist at Nordea Bank’s Estonia subsidiary told Baltic Reports that the improvement in sales is still rather a seasonal change, though, given that the first quarter is typically the worst for retail. [/private_subscription 1 year]
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