Will one of these men be Latvia's next prime minister? So far the Harmony Center party led by Riga Mayor Nils Ušakovs (left) and the Unity coalition of which current Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis (right) is a member of are neck-and-neck in polls. Photo by Aivis Freidenfelds/Latvian State Chancellery

RIGA — The latest Latvian research poll shows a tightening among the two leading parties, Harmony Center and Unity, ahead of the fall parliamentary election as each party’s numbers have fallen.

Latvia’s prospects for its first left-wing government and the first headed by an ethnic Russian since regaining its independence could happen, although since over 30 percent of the GfK/LNT poll respondents that said they are unsure of how they will vote, the outcome is far from certain. Even if Unity, which includes the New Era Party of Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis, ends up winning the most seats the make-up of parliament would drastically change.

The People’s Party, previously the largest fraction in parliament before defections and ousters whittled it down, still retains 17 members now looks set for none at all as it remains under the 5 percent threshold for Saeima representation in Latvia’s proportional system. The People’s Party’s recent merger with LPP/LC has yet to improve either party’s prospects. Meanwhile the Green and Farmers Union with 17 seats sits at just under 5 percent, too.

Voter’s choices

So far the largest party in parliament, the center-left Harmony Center, has maintained a lead in the polls but Unity has steadily made inroads. There are clear policy differences between the two.

The platform of Harmony Center, led by Riga Mayor Nils Ušakovs highlights reforming the taxation system, emphasize social-welfare spending, further ethnic Russian integration into Latvian society and increase cooperation with Russia.

Unity is still forming but promises to be a different kind of center-right government by fighting the crony capitalism and corruption that remains widespread in the Latvian politics and continuing fiscal consolidation and vying for eurozone entry. Unity, which fused in November, includes the Civic Union, New Era and the newly-formed Society for Different Politics.

While Unity’s poll results move closer to first place, it’s unclear how much an anti-corruption drive energizes the Latvian electorate.

While Latvians took to the street to demonstrate against the allegedly politically-motivated dismissal of anti-corruption bureau chief Aleksejs Loskutovs in 2007, eventually causing then Prime Minister Aigars Kalvītis to resign because of his controversial firing decision, the same poll shows that the most popular candidate for prime minister currently is mayor of Ventspils and leader of the Greens and Farmers Union Aivars Lembergs at 48 percent.

Lembergs was was arrested in 2007 on charges of graft, money laundering and providing false income declarations. He spent several months in jail before finally being released. His trial is pending.

Dombrovskis is the second-most popular candidate for prime minister with 40 percent while Riga deputy mayor and Latvia’s First Party/Latvian Way leader Ainārs Šlesers is third at 19 percent.

The poll shows that 72 percent of the electorate plans on voting.

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