In early 2009, a newspaper asked Latvian economists, political scientists, and other experts to predict what might happen in Latvia in the coming year. As could be expected, they offered up a cornucopia of calamities, from national bankruptcy, devaluation of the currency, and worse.

Among the prognosticators was Latvian poet Māra Zālīte, who predicted the following:

It's June 2010 and the sun is still shining and the beaches are still beautiful in Latvia. Photo by Nathan Greenhalgh/Baltic Reports

“We will have a white winter and the hills will be filled with skiers. Then there will be a gorgeous spring and a happy Easter. Then summer will arrive, bringing beautifully tended gardens and God-given meadows filled with fantastic flowers. That will be followed by a lovely Jāņi and the forests will begin to reveal their mushrooms. Autumn will come, and all who have planted will harvest their crops. People will love and be happy. Artists will create art and poets will write poetry. Children will grow tall and strong. The holidays will arrive again followed by Christmas. Another cycle in human life will pass, between the stars and everything we have experienced.”

Zālīte was right on. She was the only one of the experts to accurately describe what actually happened in Latvia in 2009. Of course, Latvia has experienced one of its most difficult economic years since the restoration of independence in 1991. Companies have gone bankrupt, the state budget has been eviscerated to cut the national debt, and tens of thousands are unemployed. But the national currency is intact, the government that was formed in February not only reached several agreements with international lenders but successfully passed an austerity budget for 2010, and many Latvian companies have not only survived, but even thrived during the crisis.

During the first part of 2009, international economists and political commentators had a field day predicting doom and gloom for Latvia. They may have been right about the gloom, but not the doom.

From January until October, dozens of publications, from the Wall Street Examiner and Irish Times to Euronews and Forbes, all put Latvia “on the brink of collapse” countless times. ‘Brinkmanship’ became the favorite pastime of headline writers. When we weren’t on the brink of collapse, we were on the brink of bankruptcy, on the brink of devaluation, and the brink of a crisis. According to the experts, we alternatingl between “teetering”, “tottering” and “hovering” on that brink, and all predicted that the landing would be hard.

But in early December, on the brink of the Christmas holidays, the newly-appointed Permanent President of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy came to Latvia and observed, “In difficult circumstances you have followed a courageous course to emerge from the economic crisis”. A spokesman for the International Monetary Fund expressed “cautious optimism” that for Latvia, “the worst was over”. European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquín Almunia praised the vote on the 2010 budget as “another key step towards strengthening international confidence in the ability of Latvia to deal with the challenges brought about by the economic crisis”.

Of course, many of the experts are arguing among themselves about which course economically-ravaged countries like Iceland, Latvia, and Hungary should take and the pros and cons on the role of the IMF, EU, and other international players continue to pile up. Some are even cheering for economic European Davids to defy the financial global Goliaths. I particularly liked this bit of metaphorical cheerleading that just appeared in the Huffington Post:

“Historically, the Vikings of Iceland repeatedly repulsed British invaders; Latvian tribes repulsed even the Vikings; and the Greeks conquered the whole Persian Empire. If anyone can stand up to the IMF, these stalwart European warriors can.”

While I’m not one to take sides on who can best manage this present round of macroeconomic mayhem, I do like the change in tone among our planet’s pundits and predictors, especially when it comes to Latvia. Back in January, some were calling us “Europe’s sickest country”. Suddenly, now a year and a half later we are “stalwart European warriors” and our GDP numbers are improving.

So, what has changed to bring this about? Well, a lot, no doubt. But I think the real reason we have gone from sick to stalwart is not because of what has changed, but because of that which has remained the same.

You see, Māra Zālīte was right. We’ve had a beautiful spring and lovely summer, and those young men who fell in love with young women celebrated holidays and anniversaries, and the poets wrote poetry and the artists made art. Latvian opera singers, violinists, filmmakers, and theatre directors won prestigious international awards, the Suiti community in Kurzeme made the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage List, and the city of Riga was nominated to become the European Capital of Culture in 2014.

And when everyone stayed up during the night of Jāņi and sang songs to ensure that the sun would rise again tomorrow, it did. But then, I could have predicted that, as I am this year.

Ojārs Kalniņš is the director of the Latvian Institute. The Latvian Institute (Latvijas institūts) was established by the Latvian government to provide a wide range of information about Latvia, its society, culture and history. For more information visit www.li.lv.

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