TALLINN — Estonian unemployment is already the highest since the country became independent of the U.S.S.R. two decades ago, but the rate may climb higher yet.

Financial consulting firm Tark Investor predicts that unemployment in the smallest Baltic state will reach up to 19 percent by the end of March. Tark Investor argues that the unemployment rate will rise to 17-19 percent, fueled by bankruptcies and will not start rescinding until the end of 2011, and even then the drop will be modest, only to 14 percent.

According to Statistics Estonia the number of unemployed in Estonia is already record-high with 102,000, 14.6 percent of the population, now jobless.

Kalle Kose, an analyst for Tark Investor said that while the first signs of stabilization in the Estonian economy are appearing, the revival of job market will begin later than the overall recovery.

“Many companies are continually forced to cut the expenses on workforce due to the decrease of capacity in the company’s activity, and there are still some enterprises who have to end their activity,” Kose told Baltic Reports. “Therefore, despite the somewhat more positive view of Estonia’s economy, the growth of unemployment will not pause in next few months.”

The government is less pessimistic. The Ministry of Social Affairs predicts unemployment rate will not rise higher than 17 percent.

“We cannot comment on the methods of Tark Investor’s prognosis but relying on the analysis by the Estonian Ministry of Finance, we consider it is possible that the jobless rate will rise near 16.8 percent this year,” Eli Lilles, press spokeswoman of the Ministry of the Interior told Baltic Reports.

Meanwhile some analysts predict a smaller peak of joblessness. Swedbank analyst Maris Lauri is more optimistic, saying it will top out at around 15 percent.

“First of all the job cuts are not so common anymore and secondly the jobless rate was also higher due to people who stayed at home but now started to seek a job, which means that people who did not work before, were employed abroad or illegally also signed up as unemployed,” Lauri told Baltic Reports.

Lauri added that the jobless rate may also have increased in the fall due to students leaving their jobs for school. Lauri predicts that the unemployment will continue its rise until spring but then the jobless rate will fall to 14 percent by the end of 2010 and 10 percent by the end of 2011.