In 2010, both the EU and Latvia will try to regain stability after a tumultuous 2009. But the new year will hardly be smooth sailing.

The EU’s Lisbon Treaty will enter into full force, bringing changes to the Union’s structure and functioning. Since not all the kinks have been worked out, Brussels technocrats and leaders will be learning on the fly. Turf wars, leadership battles, and institutional friction will be more prominent this year than before.

Catherine Ashton and Herman Van Rompuy will begin their jobs in earnest this year. What they do in their first year will be important in shaping the Union’s place in the world, but will also be sharply scrutinized.

Unfortunately, expectations for them are incredibly low. Baroness Ashton will have to prove her mettle as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. She lacks any real diplomatic experience or international provenance, except perhaps her one year as Trade Commissioner, yet she is now the EU’s top diplomat. Her portfolios will include dealing with a nuclear program in Iran, negotiating a Mideast peace, improving relations with Russia, democratizing the Balkans, and handling any other international crisis that springs up in between.

Whether Ashton can manage this all, even with her bloated budget, like Javier Solana did is very suspect. And she is not likely to have a high profile in world capitals.

Another Brit up for the other position of EU President, Tony Blair, was said to be able to stop traffic in Washington DC, Beijing, and New Delhi; Ashton can barely stop traffic in her home capital, London. The common foreign and security policy rests in her hands so she can make it a reality or destroy it.

Van Rompuy will lead the European Council as its president. He is supposed to represent the Union to the world, but European leaders could not have picked a more lackluster, wonkish, or unknown representative. Europe’s national leaders will do the heavy lifting, and Van Rompuy will be more of a chairperson. His backers drum up his credentials as a consensus builder because he will likely be juggling British, French, and German interests rather than setting the Council’s agenda and guiding through policy like his job description lists. His tenure will define the presidency and its powers, so a bad start in 2010 could mitigate the position into irrelevancy.

The European Parliament gains some powers to oversee more policy areas, so it will stretch its legs. A fight over the budget is expected, for example. National governments will also begin to make good on their ability to comment on draft EU law. This year, the EU must also inaugurate a new College of Commissioners. Dossiers in the Commission will be shuffled, although José Manuel Barroso of Portugal remains its President. France’s Michel Barnier won command of the internal market including financial services, so his country will front economic recovery this year.

Latvia, though missed a prime pick. Energy and enlargement will be hot topics in coming years, so Commissioner-designates jockeyed hardest for those. Latvia’s Commissioner, Andris Piebalgs, gave up the energy portfolio he held since 2004 to pursue enlargement, but received development instead.

The irony of a representative from one of Europe’s hardest hit economies overseeing development is not lost. Germany’s Günther Oettinger, not surprisingly, will oversee energy and the Czech Republic’s Stefan Füle, enlargement. Croatia will likely join the Union this year, or very early in 2011.

Enlargement brings big changes, at a time when the EU could really use some stability. Latvia’s friend Iceland probably will not join, unless the Icelandic public warms to the EU and fishing policies can be negotiated. Also, the current banking problem with the UK and the Netherlands will need to be resolved.

Spain will bumble along from January to June as holder of the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers. The Spanish agenda is scattered and unfocused, including economic recovery, implementing the Lisbon Treaty, citizenship, and foreign affairs. The one bright spot is that Spain will try to pass 2020 strategy—to replace the Lisbon Strategy—although it really should be delayed until later in the year while stakeholders are consulted.

Instead of taking leadership, it seems that Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero is going out of his way to not lead so as not to overshadow Ashton and Van Rompuy. The presidency is largely expected to be a flop.

From July to December, Belgium will be helm the Council. If Yves Leterme can hold his country together until then, he will lead the rotating presidency. Since Leterme both preceded and succeeded van Rompuy (a member of his own party) as prime minister, the two can be expected to get along well and the Belgian agenda might show more ambition and purpose.

Latvia might be better off in 2010 than 2009. Its economy might rebound, a very small amount and only at the very end of the year, maybe. Most likely, GDP will remain down and unemployment high. Austerity will be the word of the year for Latvians.

Politically, the country is not better off. Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis will have a difficult time holding together his coalition as elections loom in October. This year’s budget showed the coalition’s weaknesses. The election is likely to be a blame war, with politicians distancing themselves from economic culpability.

Latvians need a government focused on improving the economy, not getting in power. Of course the entire Union will be dealing with economic recovery. Latvia has gotten a bad rap for its economic failure, but the UK, Greece, and Iceland are also in bad shape. Spain is grappling with high unemployment. The Union will need to continue to fend of protectionist impulses, even as economies improve.

The coming year will test the Union and Latvia. Some challenges are known, others will arise over time. However, what does not kill the EU and Latvia will make them stronger.

Michael G. Dozler is a graduate student of international affairs who received a Fulbright research grant for study in Latvia.

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Views expressed in the opinion section are never those of the Baltic Reports company or the website’s editorial team as a whole, but merely those of the individual writer.